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On-chain intelligence, with the source of every number.
Mercurial in two minutes: free to look and paper trading only, every module wearing its status, the regime read and its own caveat, token and DeFi intelligence from the providers named on the page, the flows and divergence proxies described as proxies, the confidence engine, and the Strategy Lab. Every line is from this page.
A real-time, rules-based read on the current market environment, computed from live market-cap, dominance, and volume data on every load.
LIVE DATA
Current regime
CLASSIFICATION
Computing...
24H MARKET CAP CHANGE
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BTC DOMINANCE TREND
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Evidence
--
Method
Threshold classifier on 24h global market-cap change and BTC dominance direction. This is a simplified heuristic, not a substitute for the full multi-factor regime model (funding rates, liquidations, options skew) described in the source specification, which requires derivatives and liquidation-level data this build does not have live access to.
Confidence engine
Confidence in the observation (that market cap moved X% in 24h)
High -- directly from provider data
Confidence in any forward-looking interpretation
Not asserted -- see disclaimer below
Token Intelligence
Live price, market cap, FDV proxy, and volume for the largest tracked tokens.
LIVE DATA
#
Token
Price
24h
7d
Market Cap
24h Volume
From ATH
Loading live market data...
DeFi Intelligence
Total value locked, category concentration, and 7-day TVL momentum across tracked protocols.
LIVE DATA
TRACKED PROTOCOLS
--
TOP CHAIN BY TVL
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TOP CATEGORY BY TVL
--
Top protocols by TVL
#
Protocol
Category
TVL
1d
7d
Loading live protocol data...
Stablecoin supply by asset
Ranked by total circulating supply across all chains. A true per-chain split would require one additional live call per chain and is left as a documented extension in INTEGRATION.md rather than shipped partially implemented.
#
Asset
Circulating USD
Share of tracked total
Loading live stablecoin data...
Capital Flows & Sector Rotation
A live proxy for sector rotation, built from 7-day TVL deltas by DeFi category. This approximates capital movement between sectors; it does not trace individual wallet transfers, which requires the wallet-level providers described in Data & Methodology.
LIVE DATA (sector proxy)
Category TVL momentum (7d)
#
Category
TVL
7d change
Read
Computing from live protocol data...
Chain TVL share
#
Chain
TVL
Share of tracked total
Loading...
Runners & Laggards
Ranked by a composite of 7-day price performance and volume relative to market cap, among the top 80 tokens by market cap. This is a market-structure proxy, not the full whale- and smart-money-weighted conviction score described in the source specification.
LIVE DATA
Top runners
#
Token
7d
Vol/MCap
Loading...
Top laggards
#
Token
7d
Vol/MCap
Loading...
Early accumulation candidates (fundamentals-vs-price divergence)
Protocols where 7-day TVL growth is meaningfully outpacing the token's 7-day price move. This is a real, live-computed divergence signal across a curated set of major protocols; it is a fundamentals proxy only and is not whale-accumulation evidence. Not all tokens can be matched between the price and TVL data sources, so coverage is partial by design.
#
Protocol / Token
TVL 7d
Price 7d
Divergence
Computing...
Anomalies & Alert Feed
Alerts generated live from statistically notable 24h moves in price, volume, or TVL. Wallet-level alerts (whale sells, exchange inflow spikes) require a wallet-intelligence provider and are shown separately in sample mode below.
LIVE, COMPUTED FROM MARKET + DEFI DATA
Computing...
SAMPLE DATA. The alerts below illustrate the wallet-level alert format from the specification (whale sells, exchange inflows, dormant-wallet reactivation). They are not derived from real blockchain activity. See Data & Methodology to connect a real wallet-intelligence provider.
Whale Intelligence
What fund-labeled wallets are accumulating and distributing, aggregated by token: net flows over 24h and 7d and how many such wallets traded it. Live data comes from Nansen through the Mercurial proxy; the API key is held server-side.
SAMPLE DATA -- NOT LIVE
Sample preview. Live wallet data arrives as each data provider is connected; until then this section is a labeled sample. The Data & Methodology page lists what is live.
Every wallet, address, and score on this page is a fabricated illustration of the UI and scoring framework. No real blockchain address is being tracked or referenced. See how to connect live data.
Sample: Fund-labeled wallet net flows by token
Wallet group
Asset
Signal
24h net flow
7d net flow
Traders (30d)
Sample: exchange flow read
Smart Money
Which tokens the top-performing wallets (funds and consistently profitable traders) are net buying or selling, over 24h, 7d, and 30d. Live data comes from Nansen through the Mercurial proxy.
SAMPLE DATA -- NOT LIVE
Sample preview. Live wallet data arrives as each data provider is connected; until then this section is a labeled sample. The Data & Methodology page lists what is live.
Illustrative only. Scores below are fabricated for UI demonstration and do not describe any real wallet.
Sample: Smart money net flows by token
NFT Intelligence
Floor, 24h volume, floor change, and holder counts for major collections. Live data comes from CoinGecko public NFT data through the Mercurial proxy.
SAMPLE DATA -- NOT LIVE
Sample preview. Live wallet data arrives as each data provider is connected; until then this section is a labeled sample. The Data & Methodology page lists what is live.
Illustrative only. No real collection, floor price, or wallet is represented below.
Collection
Floor
24h volume
Floor 24h
Holders
Tokenomics & Unlock Risk
Upcoming supply unlocks in the next 30 days and their size relative to float. Live data comes from DeFiLlama Pro emissions through the Mercurial proxy.
SAMPLE DATA -- NOT LIVE
Sample preview. Live wallet data arrives as each data provider is connected; until then this section is a labeled sample. The Data & Methodology page lists what is live.
Illustrative only. Unlock dates and sizes below are fabricated for UI demonstration.
Token
Event
Est. size
% of float
Read
Rankings
Live rankings are computed from market and DeFi data on every load. Wallet-dependent rankings are sample data until a wallet-intelligence provider is connected.
Top 10 movers, 7d LIVE
#
Token
7d
Top 10 DeFi TVL gainers, 7d LIVE
#
Protocol
7d TVL change
Top whale net inflows SAMPLE
#
Wallet group
Asset
24h net flow
Top smart-money net inflows SAMPLE
#
Wallet group
Asset
24h net flow
Strategy Lab
Test a transparent, rules-based rotation strategy against real historical prices before risking a dollar. This is a simulation on past data: it does not hold, move, or trade funds, and it does not predict anything. Every rule it applies is written on this page.
SIMULATION ON REAL HISTORICAL DATA -- NO FUNDS ARE TRADED
Sign in to run simulations. Paper trading only: no order leaves your browser and no money moves. The rules and caveats below are visible to everyone.
The rules (all of them)
Universe
The top N tokens by market cap from Token Intelligence, excluding stablecoins.
Signal
Trailing 7-day price return, recomputed at each rebalance.
Position
Equal weight across the top K tokens by that signal; everything else at zero. Cash is held until the first rebalance.
Costs
A flat cost in basis points on every dollar of turnover, charged at each rebalance. Real costs (spread, slippage, gas, exchange fees) vary and can be higher.
Benchmarks
Equal-weight buy-and-hold of the same universe, and a Bitcoin hold, over the same window.
Parameters
Results, nominal $10,000, window ending today
STRATEGY RETURN
--
EQUAL-WEIGHT HOLD
--
BITCOIN HOLD
--
STRATEGY MAX DRAWDOWN
--
REBALANCES / TRADES
--
COSTS PAID
--
StrategyEqual-weight holdBitcoin hold
Universe used
--
Data
--
Review: every period, losses and wins examined
Each row is one holding period between rebalances. "Selection" is the strategy's period return minus the equal-weight universe return for the same days: negative selection means the rule picked worse than holding everything; a loss with near-zero selection means the whole market fell and no rule in this universe would have avoided it. The three worst and three best periods are highlighted.
Period
Held
Strategy
Equal weight
Selection
P&L
What the losses have in common
--
Robustness: does the result survive changing the parameters?
The same rule run across every combination of hold count, rebalance cadence, and cost, on the same data. If only a few combinations beat the equal-weight hold, the winning result above is more likely luck than edge.
PARAMETER SETS TESTED
--
BEAT EQUAL-WEIGHT HOLD
--
MEDIAN STRATEGY RETURN
--
WORST PARAMETER SET
--
Hold
Rebalance
Cost
Return
Max drawdown
vs equal weight
Walk-forward: choose on the first half, test on the second
The parameter set that did best on the first half of the window is then run, unchanged, on the second half it never saw. This is the closest a backtest gets to honesty about the future. A first-half winner that loses in the second half is the definition of overfitting.
CHOSEN ON FIRST HALF
--
FIRST-HALF RETURN
--
SECOND-HALF RETURN (UNSEEN)
--
SECOND-HALF EQUAL WEIGHT
--
Verdict
--
Scenario model: up to 1,000,000 resampled histories
Each scenario rebuilds the window from randomly chosen blocks of real historical days (all tokens move together within a block, so correlations are preserved), then runs the rule and the equal-weight benchmark on it. The result is a distribution of outcomes instead of one number. Stress mode builds scenarios only from the worst quarter of historical blocks. Statistical honesty: 100,000 scenarios estimate these percentiles to within a rounding error of what 1,000,000 gives; the larger run is available because it costs nothing but time, not because it knows more. And no resampling can contain a situation that did not occur inside the loaded history.
MEDIAN RETURN
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5TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE
--
SCENARIOS THAT LOST MONEY
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BEAT EQUAL-WEIGHT HOLD
--
WORST 1% (AVERAGE)
--
MEDIAN / 95TH PCT DRAWDOWN
--
What this says
--
Read before acting on any of this. A simulation on past prices tells you how a rule would have behaved, not how it will behave. Short windows overfit: a rule that won over 90 days can lose over the next 90. Costs here are a flat approximation; live execution adds spread, slippage, gas, and failed transactions. Nothing on this page is a recommendation, and Mercurial does not execute trades. If you ever automate a rule with real money, it should run under your own keys, on your own infrastructure, after paper-trading it forward in time, with a loss limit you decided in advance.
My Wallet
Review the last 30 days of activity for an address you enter here: what was sent, what was received, and the USD volume of each transaction, from Nansen's labeled transaction data through the Mercurial proxy. The address is sent with your request and used for that request only; it is never stored in this page, in the proxy, or anywhere else.
ENTER AN ADDRESS TO LOAD ACTIVITY
Sample preview. Live wallet activity arrives when the wallet data provider is connected; until then this section is a labeled sample.
Range summary
TRANSACTIONS
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USD VALUE SENT
--
USD VALUE RECEIVED
--
NET USD FLOW
--
What this is and is not
Net USD flow is value received minus value sent at the time of each transaction. It is not profit or loss: gains and losses depend on cost basis, holding periods, and the accounting method your jurisdiction allows, which are computed by your tax software or accountant from the export below. Gas and protocol fees are not part of the provider's transaction record and are left blank in the export.
Time (UTC)
Method
Sent
Received
Volume
Source
No activity loaded yet.
What this is not. Mercurial reads this address; it cannot sign for it, move anything from it, or trade on its behalf. There is no custody in this product and no automated trading of anyone's funds, by design and by its Terms. The CSV export is a transaction record in a format tax tools import; it is not a tax return, not tax advice, and it does not compute gains.
On-Chain Intelligence Executive Brief
Generated live from the data above at the moment this page loaded.
The bottom line
Next 24 hours / 7 days / 30 days -- what to monitor
NEXT 24H
--
NEXT 7D
--
NEXT 30D
--
On recommendations: this brief flags what the live data shows as notable. It deliberately does not issue Accumulate/Reduce/Avoid calls with conviction scores on real assets, because that register of claim requires the whale- and smart-money-level evidence this build does not have live access to. The Whale Intelligence and Smart Money pages show, in sample mode, what that fuller format looks like once a paid provider is connected.
Credit
The market and DeFi terminal above is free to anyone, with no account. The wallet-level sections (Whale Intelligence, Smart Money, NFT Intelligence, Tokenomics and unlocks) show labeled sample previews until each data provider is connected; the Data & Methodology page lists what is live. Nothing is sold for them today.
What you get, with no account
Live market regime, token, DeFi, capital-flow, runner/laggard, and anomaly intelligence
Included
Executive brief, refreshed on every load
Included
Paper trading in the Strategy Lab: no order leaves your browser and no money moves
Included
Sample previews of every wallet-level section, labeled as samples
Included
Mercurial
A self-hosted strategy runner you operate on your own machine, for your own wallet, with your own keys and your own parameters. Sold as software, by subscription. It is not a managed account, not a signal service, and it takes no share of anything you make or lose.
MERCURIAL
SELF-HOSTED STRATEGY RUNNER
What you get
The Mercurial package: paper mode by default, a gated ladder to live, position and exposure caps, a daily loss halt, a drawdown halt, a manual kill file, and data-integrity checks.
Three presets, a one-command quickstart, an operating manual, and a compliance-and-tax guide.
Lot-matched realized gains and tax-tool CSV exports from its own records.
A validate command with honest gate reporting and a locked non-retrograde floor.
Full Access to this terminal, including the Strategy Lab and My Wallet, for the life of the subscription.
Updates for as long as you subscribe. Your friend needs his own subscription for his own copy; nothing is shared between copies.
What it is not
Not a managed account. We never hold, see, or move your funds, and we cannot.
Not a performance-fee product. The price is the price; no percentage of profits, ever. A performance fee would make this an advisory relationship, which it is not.
Not a promise. The runner can lose every dollar in the wallet it controls; its whole design is to make that loss small, visible, and stoppable.
Not verified on chain by us. Live-dry mode and the smallest-size first live trade are how you verify it, on the ladder in its README.
Availability
STATUS
Not yet available
WHEN
Announced on this page
YOUR STATUS
--
The runner package is not sold today. When it ships, its terms and price are published here first; nothing on this page takes a payment for it.
If you ever run it. You are the operator: your keys, your parameters, your trades, your taxes, your jurisdiction's rules. Read the Risk Disclosure first.
Terms
Mercurial is one door of the AssetShop estate and is covered by the estate's Participant Terms, the same document every door uses.
Mercurial is an information service. Nothing in it is investment, financial, legal or tax advice; the Risk Disclosure says what the figures are and are not.
Privacy
Mercurial is one door of the AssetShop estate and is covered by the estate's privacy statement, the same document every door uses.
This browser keeps your paper-trading portfolio, your watchlists and your preferences. Market data is fetched from the providers named on the Data & Methodology page.
Risk Disclosure
Read this before relying on anything in Mercurial.
Not advice. Nothing in Mercurial is investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. We do not know your circumstances.
Digital assets are volatile. Prices can move sharply and unpredictably. You can lose the entire value of a position.
Data limits. All figures come from third-party providers and may be delayed, incomplete, inaccurate, rate-limited, or restated. When a provider is unreachable, the affected section says so rather than showing stale data as current; when a refresh fails, it says it is showing the session's last successful load.
Heuristics, not predictions. Regime labels, runner and laggard rankings, divergence signals, and alerts are rules applied to current data. They describe what the data shows now. They do not forecast what happens next, and confidence in an observation is never confidence in an outcome.
Sample data is fictional. Sections labeled SAMPLE contain fabricated illustrations of the interface. No real wallet, fund, collection, or unlock is represented. They are not signals.
No custody, no execution. This version of Mercurial does not connect to wallets, hold assets, or execute transactions. If a trading capability is ever added, it would be non-custodial (signed by your own wallet), with all fees disclosed before you sign, and subject to separate terms and applicable law.
Regulatory change. Laws governing digital assets and related services are changing in many jurisdictions and may affect the availability or features of the service.
Your responsibility. Do your own research, consider independent professional advice, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. You are responsible for your own tax reporting.
Data & Methodology
What is live, what is sample, and how to make the rest live.
Live data sources (no key required)
Token prices, market caps, volume
CoinGecko public API
DeFi protocol TVL, categories, chains
DeFiLlama api.llama.fi
Stablecoin circulating supply
DeFiLlama stablecoins.llama.fi
Sample-only sections and what would make them live
Section
Requires
Typical access model
Whale Intelligence
Fund-labeled wallet net flows by token
Nansen API key (server-side); implemented, awaiting key
Smart Money
Smart-money net flows by token
Nansen API key (server-side); implemented, awaiting key
NFT Intelligence
Collection floor, volume, holders
CoinGecko public NFT data via the proxy; implemented, awaiting proxy deployment
Tokenomics & Unlocks
Upcoming unlock events
DeFiLlama Pro emissions key (server-side); implemented, awaiting key
Full integration steps, required environment variables, and a Firebase Cloud Function proxy template are in INTEGRATION.md and cloud-functions/ in this package. Paid keys should never be placed in this file, since it is intended to be public on IPFS -- anything embedded here is visible to anyone who views source.
Part of JUNCTION
Mercurial is one door in the JUNCTION ecosystem: independently useful, requiring none of the others. The optional connection it shares is identity: accounts live on the same Firebase project as the other AssetShop doors, so Shadow Key or subscriber can be recognized across them without Mercurial depending on any of them to function.
This is not investment advice
Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Figures are sourced from third-party public APIs and may be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. Verify independently before making any financial decision.
Not financial, legal, or investment advice. Mercurial surfaces public market and protocol data and clearly-labeled illustrative samples. It does not execute trades, hold funds, or custody assets.
Data delays, provider outages, and classification errors are possible. Live sections refresh on page load; if a provider is unreachable or rate-limited, the affected section will say so rather than showing stale data as current.